Tuesday, May 13, 2008

West Virginia Primary Signals Look at Demographics

Does today's West Virginia Democratic primary matter? Isn't that the state with something like five electoral college votes? Oh sure, it's a swing state, we have to pay attention to those swing states. Swing state, shming state. I feel like I'm hanging out on a playground.

I can't remember the last time West Virginia influenced the outcome of a primary election. Oh wait. Yes I do. It was the 15th of NEVER.

As far as this blogger is concerned, the only reason today's primary matters is the question of demographics. Obama doesn't connect with white blue collar workers. I think that's fairly clear. Clinton seems to think this demographic will carry her to victory in Denver. I couldn't disagree more.

The number of white blue collar workers defecting to McCain or sticking with the Democratic Party candidate remains to be seen, but I'm going out on a limb to predict the majority of Democratic white blue collar workers will stick with the Party no matter who ends up being the candidate. West Virginia's tiny amount of electoral college votes won't sway the general election.

Universal health care. Is McCain offering that? More money for education. Does McCain have a similar proposal? McCain can't propose the expansion of social programs without losing half of the Republican vote. Call it pandering or whatever you like, but the majority of white blue collar workers are going to vote for the Democratic Party candidate in the general election. So today's outcome in West Virginia is a non-issue, one that should be put to rest as soon as possible.

Oh, and did I mention that Obama now leads in the popular vote, pledged delegates, and pledged superdelegates? I just don't understand what Hillary has to gain by making a spectacle of herself.

Looks like my prior concerns about the demographic of Jewish Americans may have been for naught. Glenn Greenwald, likely a fellow member of the tribe, has an excellent piece analyzing a recent Obama interview in The Atlantic. He comes to the conclusion that Obama is as much of a supporter of Jewish concerns as any of the other candidates.

And just as much a patriot.